One of the most sensitive areas for climate change on the globe will be in the Midwest, according to research from Purdue University.
And those changes are already happening, according to conclusions released by the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment.
Jeffrey S. Dukes, director of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center, talked about climate change and its effect on Indiana during a talk at the Columbus Learning Center.
“The ways we build our roads, manage our farms, move our water, and use energy are all influenced by our unique Indiana climate,” Dukes said. “But our climate has been changing, and it will continue changing in ways that affect our productivity, our safety, and our livelihoods.”
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Dukes made his presentation on the first of nine reports being released to Hoosiers from his department that will cover the impacts of climate change on agriculture, health, recreation, water resources, ecosystems and other topics.
The series of reports show that Indiana’s forests and urban green infrastructure could look dramatically different over the next century due to warmer temperatures and changed precipitation patterns brought on by climate change, according to the report.
“It is significant that all these different aspects of climate change are being brought together by Purdue,” Bartholomew County Purdue extension educator Kris Medic said. “We’re very data-based in what we do, and the data shows our climate is unmistakably changing.”
More than 100 top experts from institutions around the state have contributed to the assessment over the past two years, as have dozens of Hoosiers working in health, energy, agriculture and other sectors.
What to expect
From the year 1915 through 2013, southern Indiana averaged about seven extremely hot days every year, according to Purdue research. But the assessment predicts that number is likely to increase to between 38 to 51 extremely hot days each year by the middle of this century.
More hot days will increase cooling demand, potentially taxing utilities at a time when they are seeking to reduce emissions and burdening ratepayers with higher bills, according to the assessment.
This increase in hot days will also lead to more heat-related illnesses, especially for children and the elderly, as well as reducing air quality and extending allergy seasons, Dukes said. Warmer summers result in increased evaporation, so if Indiana receives the same or less amounts of rain, there will be increased stress on agricultural crops and drinking water supplies, he said.
Milder winters do not control populations of disease-carrying insects, which require some sub-zero winter weather, according to the Purdue report.
Without extreme cold snaps, insects carrying diseases such as malaria, Zika and dengue fever that were previously thought to be eradicated in the U.S. could potentially make their way into the region, the assessment states.
Conditions are already ripe in southern Indiana to host these diseases, according to Purdue research.
Bartholomew County’s heavy flooding in early April falls in line with evidence released a few weeks before that spring storms were intensifying, Dukes said.
What’s more, Purdue research states the frequency and intensity of extreme rain amounts will increase during the upcoming decades – especially during the spring.
More flooding could cause sewer systems to overflow and fertilizers to run off of farm fields, resulting in a larger potential of water pollution, the report states.
The assessments should be considered significant by all Bartholomew County residents, said Barry Kastner, a Cummins Inc. retiree and member of the Energy Matters Community Coalition.
The assessment provides the first large-scale scientific effort to show Hoosiers the direct consequences of climate change where they live, he said.
“It’s no longer that climate change is something in the future that is going to affect someone else,” Kastner said. “It’s happening now and getting increasingly serious.”
The purpose of the assessments is neither to scare Hoosiers or provide comfort, Dukes said.
Instead, it is intended to provide information that will help maintain Indiana’s competitiveness and manage resources as environmental conditions change, he said.
Local plans in the works
Columbus Mayor Jim Lienhoop said he agrees that the city — which had above-average high temperatures on 23 of 31 days in May — is likely to experience more extreme weather events in the months and years ahead.
While Dukes said some cities are already using the first assessment for planning purposes, Lienhoop said there has already been substantial local preparation for natural disasters and emergency responses since the June 2008 floods.
“I never want to say we are 100 percent ready for anything,” the mayor said. “But based on foreseeable circumstances, I believe we’ve done a fair job of planning and preparation.”
Citing solar power as an example, Lienhoop said there is an interest among local officials to further pursue green initiatives that could offset greenhouse gases caused by human activities.
These gases, which include carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, block heat from escaping the atmosphere. The impact on the ecosystem, such as warmer oceans and melting polar caps, increases the risk for extreme weather, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“But at the end of the day, we will be limited by available resources,” Lienhoop said.
From a residential solar power initiative to local students requesting more elaborate climate change plans, a number of Columbus residents are already attempting to prepare for what is ahead, Kastner said.
He also commended Columbus-Bartholomew County Planner Jeff Bergman for including climate change predictions on a recent presentation concerning flooding.
Two students groups – the Columbus North High School Environmental Club and the Bartholomew School Climate Restoration Team – served as co-sponsors of Dukes’ recent appearance in Bartholomew County.
Other sponsoring organizations were Bartholomew County Indivisible, the Energy Matters Community Coalition, and the Winding Waters Group of the Sierra Club.
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There are several things that can be done in every home to be kinder to the environment, and save some money:
- Determine the five most common lights you use in your home, and install compact fluorescent bulbs in all five. They will use less energy and help reduce your impact on the environment.
- Replace your old thermostat with a programmable one that allows you to turn off the heating or air-conditioning when you’re not home. Programmable thermostats cost as little as $20, but can shave hundreds off your energy bill.
- Replace your old toilet with one that uses less water. Research shows toilets account for nearly 30 percent of the average home’s indoor water use.
- Whether it’s curbside or dro- off, make sure you are involved in your local recycling program.
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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In a program initiated in 2015 by the Purdue Climate Change Research Center, scientists and decision makers from across the state have been working together to develop a series of reports that shows how a changing climate will affect state and local interests.
More than 100 experts from dozens of Indiana-based institutions have been participating in one or more working groups that have been developing technical reports describing the specific ways changing conditions affect Hoosier families and communities.
For more information or to read the reports, visit indianaclimate.org.
Source: Purdue University
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