Brian Howey
For The Republic
Are you running for governor in 2024?
That was the question I had for U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, R-Indiana, as we had coffee Monday afternoon. Just hours earlier, two Indiana reporters had suggested that U.S. Rep. Trey Hollingsworth was the “frontrunner” for this open seat.
“I haven’t ruled anything out,” Banks responded. “I will say candidly we’re watching closely what (U.S. Sen.) Mike Braun does. If Mike Braun runs for governor, we’ll look at the Senate race. Whatever Mike Braun does creates a dominoes effect in a lot of directions.”
Less than 24 hours later, Sen. Braun had what could be called a “Richard Mourdock moment” when he suggested that Roe v. Wade should really be determined by the states in a Zoom call with reporters. Times of Northwestern Indiana reporter Dan Carden asked him if interracial marriage should also be determined by the states instead of by the U.S. Supreme Court. “This should be something where the expression of individual states are able to weigh in on these issues through their own legislation, through their own court systems. Quit trying to put the federal government in charge,” Braun said.
That response drew the kind of criticism that Mourdock’s 2012 U.S. Senate debate blunder on rape and abortion led to Democrat Joe Donnelly’s upset victory a few weeks later.
Braun quickly attempted to walk that back, saying, “I misunderstood a line of questioning that ended up being about interracial marriage. Let me be clear on that issue – there is no question the Constitution prohibits discrimination of any kind based on race, that is not something that is even up for debate, and I condemn racism in any form, at all levels and by any states, entities, or individuals.”
When I suggested that Braun’s original quote might not hurt him in a 2024 GOP gubernatorial primary, a partisan texted me: “Good lord, who do you think we are? You act as if Republicans in Indiana are some monolithic herd of Neanderthals.”
It’s too early to tell how much damage Braun did to himself. Republican primary voters tend to be older, whiter and more conservative than those in a general election. And this is the Trump era, where politicians say things that were once unfathomable with little consequence.
What we do know is that a large Republican field is gathering for the nomination and the chance to face Joe Donnelly, at this point the likeliest Democratic nominee.
Braun, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, Indiana Republican Party Chairman Kyle Hupfer, Attorney General Todd Rokita, Eric Doden, Banks and Hollingsworth all currently weighing bids. History tells us that the field will sort itself out well before the primary.
Braun, as he did in 2018 when the spent $5 million of his own money to win the Senate primary, Doden and Hollingsworth are potential self-funder candidates. Hollingsworth won a crowded 9th Congressional District primary in 2016 by spending $3 million in family funds. Crouch has the backing of GOP financier Bob Grand, who helped fund the campaigns of Govs. Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence and Eric Holcomb. Banks has access to a national fundraising base after ascending to House Republican leadership.
In the television age of Hoosier politics, a large field free-for-all gubernatorial primary or convention floor fight has not been the norm. Party primary nominees since 1988 have typically been consensus picks. What is taking shape among Indiana Republicans in a looming crowded primary field is a rarity.
If Braun can regain equilibrium and opts for a gubernatorial run, Banks and Rokita could transition for the open Senate seat.
As for defining a “frontrunner,” it’s way too early to identify one. We’ve never had a self-funder seek a gubernatorial nomination, let alone three. Stay tuned.
Brian Howey is publisher of Howey Politics Indiana at www.howeypolitics.com. Find Howey on Facebook and Twitter @hwypol. Send comments to [email protected].
