By Andy East | The Republic
With the candidate filing period for the upcoming primary entering its final week, Bartholomew County voters appear poised to have fewer candidates to choose from on their ballots this year than in recent presidential primaries.
As of Friday morning, a total of 28 candidates had filed to run for federal, state and county-level offices and are set to appear on either the Republican or Democratic primary ballot in Bartholomew County, according to the Indiana Election Division.
That is down from 43 candidates running in largely the same races who appeared on ballots in the county in the 2020 primary, 54 in the 2016 primary and 43 in the 2012 primary, according to records from the Bartholomew County Clerk’s Office.
While prospective candidates still have until noon Friday to file to appear on a primary ballot this year, local officials say they are unsure why the numbers are lower this year.
“I don’t think we’ll have as many (candidates) this time, and I’m not sure why,” said Bartholomew County Republican Party Chair Luann Welmer. “I’m actually very pleased with the number of Republicans who have signed up to run, absolutely delighted.”
Bartholomew County Democratic Party Chair Ross Thomas said he is still talking to candidates and expects more people file to run before the deadline. He also said he anticipates a “practically full slate” of Democratic candidates for the general election.
“For our party, we’re never quite as concerned about the primary deadline,” Thomas said. “We’d like to have one strong candidate (rather) than a group of candidates. …I hope it’s not that people are checked out from politics.”
Experts, however, say the decline in the number of candidates filing to run in the primary this year may be driven by a confluence of factors, including an increased negative perception of politics and lack of interest among older millennials who are reaching the age when people generally start running for office.
It is also possible that some candidates are waiting until the last minute to file to give them time to size up their opponents before deciding whether to run.
“Any time politics is perceived to be more negative and just not a place where you might want to be, then people are less likely to want to be a part of it,” said Aaron Dusso, an associate professor of political science at IUPUI. “Politics certainly is more negative now than it has been, say 10 years ago or 20 years ago. We’ve seen kind of this decline in the civility of politics, and that’s going to permeate the rest of the country to the average person who might think about running.”
Less interest in Congress
One race in particular that has garnered less interest among candidates so far this year compared to previous presidential primaries is Indiana’s 6th Congressional District, which includes parts of Bartholomew, Johnson, Shelby and Hancock counties and southern portions of Indianapolis.
Rep. Greg Pence, who has held the seat for three terms, is not seeking reelection this year, leaving the race without an incumbent. So far, two Republicans and one Democrat have filed to run for their parties’ nomination.
By comparison, that seat also was open in the 2012 after incumbent Mike Pence left congress to run for governor, leading to eight Republicans and five Democrats filing in that year’s primary.
Welmer said that “several people” have expressed interest to her about running for the seat but ultimately thought that it would be too difficult to raise the amount of money — possibly $1 million — needed for the campaign on short notice.
Pence announced his decision to not seek reelection on Jan. 9, nearly four months before the primary.
“I’ve heard from several people who have had an interested in running,” Welmer said. “We’ve had some very good possible candidates. …It’s just a short amount of time to come up with that amount of money and do all the campaigning that would be involved.”
Dusso said he has been somewhat surprised that more Republicans have not filed to run for the seat, “because when you win that seat, it’s yours pretty much as long as you want to have it.”
At the same time, other U.S. House races in Indiana where there is no incumbent have seen more candidates file for the primary so far this year.
There are eight Republicans and two Democrats who have filed to run in the primary in Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District. The seat is currently held by Rep. Jim Banks, who has decided to run for U.S. Senate instead of seeking another term in the House.
Additionally, eight Republicans have filed to run for the party’s nomination in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, which is represented by Rep. Victoria Spartz, who has said she won’t seek reelection.
In Indiana’s 8th Congressional District, three Republicans and one Democrat have filed in the primary in hopes of succeeding Rep. Larry Buschon, who has said he will retire from Congress at the end of his term.
Contested races and turnout
So far, there are four contested races on the Republican primary ballot in Bartholomew County, and just one contested race on the Democratic ballot, according to the Indiana Election Division and Bartholomew County Clerk’s Office.
The race that officials say could drive turnout in the primary is the GOP race for Indiana governor. As of Friday morning, three people had filed to run for the party’s nomination — Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, Sen. Mike Braun and former Indiana Economic Development Corp. President Eric Doden.
Rep. Erin Houchin, R-Ind., is facing a primary challenge from Hugh Doty in Indiana’s 9th Congressional District, which includes parts of southern Bartholomew County, as well as Brown, Jackson, Jennings, Decatur, Monroe and Lawrence counties and much of the southeaster portion of the state.
In addition, state Rep. Jim Lucas, R-Seymour, is facing a primary challenge from Brownstown teacher and former West Virginia lawmaker Brian Savilla.
Lucas recently completed probation after pleading guilty to charges that he crashed his vehicle through an interstate guardrail while under the influence of alcohol and then fled the scene. The lawmaker also stoked controversy earlier week after flashing a gun to students at the Indiana State House.
Bartholomew County Commissioner Larry Kleinhenz also is facing a primary challenge from Rick Miller for the District 1 seat.
On the Democratic ticket, the only race that contested so far is Indiana’s 9th Congressional District after Timothy Peck and D. Liam Dorris filed to run. About 11% of registered voters in Bartholomew County live in that district, according to the Bartholomew County Clerk’s Office.
Local officials and experts say that contested races are key for driving turnout in elections.
Over the past three presidential primaries, turnout was by far the highest in Bartholomew County in the 2016 primary — 41% of registered voters — when Hoosiers have Trump a decisive victory over Sen. Ted Cruz in the GOP primary. Sen. Bernie Sanders defeated eventual Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Indiana.
Turnout in the 2020 primary was 32%, while turnout in the 2012 primary was about 24%, according to county records.
However, experts say that the race for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations this year will likely be all but over by the time Bartholomew County voters head to the polls in May.
So far, President Joe Biden is officially on the Democratic primary ballot in Indiana, though former President Donald Trump and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley had yet to get on the Republican ballot as of Friday morning.
“How do you get people to show up when they don’t feel like there is anything they are voting for? That becomes a perpetual problem, and you see that from one state to the next,” Dusso said. “…It hurts our democracy, ultimately, to have a lot of uncompetitive elections, be that the general election or in the primary election.”
Mostly men
The candidates who have filed to run so far in the primary are disproportionately male.
Just seven of the 28 candidates who had filed to run as of Friday morning are women, or 25%, despite females making up 50% of Indiana’s population and 51% of Bartholomew County’s population.
However, the number of women who have run for federal, state and county-level offices has increased since the 2012 primary, coinciding with the rise of Trump in the Republican Party.
In the 2012 primary, just two of the 43 candidates on Bartholomew County ballots were women, as well as 10 of the 54 candidates in the 2016 primary and eight of the 43 candidates in the 2020 primary.
A survey by the Brookings Institute conducted every 10 years from 2001 to 2021 among 4,000 potential candidates found women remain less likely to say they had thought about running for office.
“Their major finding was that there is a big gender gap, women are much less likely to say they will actually run for office than men,” Dusso said. “…That is something that plays out across the country.”
