Political conventions are not for me. I went to my first one, at the state level, last month and I thought I was going to break out in a rash from what felt like life-threatening inefficiency. Of course, I oppose the existence of big graduations, weddings and funerals too, so maybe the problem is me.
I will begrudgingly admit that all of these ceremonies have a purpose.
The Democratic National Convention is meaningful this year, even to me. I’m still glad I’m not going, and I will only watch it a little. But I will be watching the reaction. I will be watching that like a hawk, because that’s all that really matters.
The 2020 conventions were both turned into Zoom meetings due to the pandemic. The “party” part of the political parties was as bland and uninspiring as the year itself was. Some watched them on TV, though viewership was down across the board, except Fox for the Republicans and MSNBC for the Democrats. I tried to watch, I guess, but I don’t remember either one of them.
Even so, voter turnout was juiced in 2020. And when turnout rises, Democrats tend to perform better. That rule applies to Indiana just like everywhere else in America. Pay attention to every race in Indiana that appears to be close at this moment. The new excitement on the Democratic side coming from the new nominees, and now the convention, will help the party in all of the close races.
Democrat Heidi Beidinger is running for a hotly contested Indiana House seat in the Elkhart area against incumbent GOP Rep. Dale Devon. This race is a rematch from 2022, one Devon handily won 56% to 43%. He had two consecutive squeakers in 2020 and 2018 though, and this year is expected to be close again. The changing conditions on top could help Beidinger. I have no data before or after the Biden/Harris switch, but that change in energy, added with the district’s proximity to battleground Michigan, will almost certainly give the Democrat a boost there.
Elissa Slotkin, a three-term U.S. House member from Michigan running for the open U.S. Senate seat in another tight race, is feeling the benefit of the switch on top. She wouldn’t appear with President Joe Biden when he visited the state six weeks ago, as reported by the Washington Post. That seems like a distant memory now.
“She’s completely changed the air in the room,” Slotkin said a week after appearing with Harris in Detroit in front of a roaring crowd of thousands of people. “Completely.”
Michigan is one of three U.S. Senate races the Cook Political Report lists as a toss-up. Ohio is another one, though polling for incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is strong. Montana is the third, with incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) in a real dogfight with a well-funded Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy.
With the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin, technically a Democrat from West Virginia, the battle for control of the upper chamber starts at 50-50. In a collection of races that will be decided on a margin collectively even tighter than the presidential race, enthusiasm will likely make the difference.
The Harris phenomenon was not all that surprising at the beginning. Many described it as a “honeymoon” period that would eventually moderate. It still could, though that window is closing. But there is at least one other driver of enthusiasm that isn’t being measured collectively just yet: Reproductive choice
Abortion protection referenda are on the ballot in eight states already, and two more are expected. If national polling on the issue holds close to true, presidential swing states such as Arizona and Nevada, where the measure is on the ballot, will favor Democrats. Montana, a Senate swing state, will also likely have a referendum on it, though that won’t be known until later this week according to the Associated Press.
On this front, pay attention to the issue in Florida and Missouri. It cannot help those states’ incumbent pro-lifers, Sen. Rick Scott and Sen. Josh Hawley, to have voters oppose them on a public question, as is expected. It makes it difficult for a voter to then turn around and vote to reelect them on the very same ballot.
Yes, the presidential race has changed. The impact of the new conditions will reach places that weren’t significantly in doubt a month ago, including tight races in Indiana.
I vividly remember two conventions in my voting lifetime. In 1992, I just knew Bill Clinton was going to win by the convention’s closing night. In 2008, the whole country knew Barack Obama would win. It’s a reason to watch a ceremony that I typically wouldn’t. This year, I will pop the popcorn for it.
Michael Leppert is an author, educator and a communication consultant in Indianapolis. He writes about government, politics and culture at MichaelLeppert.com. This commentary was previously published at indianacapitalchronicle.com. Send comments to [email protected].
