Michael Leppert
Polling data takes up more space in my world than campaign ads do. It’s truly remarkable. In any presidential election year, I am normally exhausted by every candidate’s pitch on TV by now. Thirty seconds at a time, the sound bites should have already eroded a precious sliver of my soul, and possibly yours as well.
Not this year. Not even on my chosen social platforms am I overwhelmed with the ads, barring a few odd, out-of-state exceptions. Nope. Polling data updates, some reliable and some absurd, is what I see most. Maybe it’s just my algorithm. Maybe I’ve been identified as an unpersuadable data wonk.
Or maybe the red-state-message in this red state is the problem.
A poll released last week by Destiny Wells, the Democratic nominee for attorney general, was the first public one showing details of two statewide races. The pollster, Lake Research Partners, is reputable. The sampling was appropriate, made up of 51% Republican voters and 36% Democratic. Wells only trails incumbent AG Todd Rokita 44-41%. Name identification for the incumbent is understandably twice as high as it is for Wells, which leads me to conclude that the more people know Rokita, the more people don’t like him.
Rokita’s low numbers are easy to explain. He is primarily known for performative antics that deliver nothing of value to Hoosiers, led by his unhinged attack on Dr. Caitlin Bernard for doing her job as an obstetrician. He has solicited complaints against state government, otherwise known as his own client. He has never seen a pro-Trump lawsuit he didn’t volunteer to join. And his law license has been regularly in jeopardy for unlawyerly behavior.
He’s simply unpopular. Go figure.
The Indiana governor’s race was also included in the poll, and not surprisingly, it too shows a dead heat. Republican Mike Braun’s 41% to Democrat Jennifer McCormick’s 39% is inside the margin of error. Libertarian Donald Rainwater’s 9% support matters too.
McCormick is polling seven points better than the 2020 Democratic candidate performed. The other two parties are lagging last election’s finish. That’s a meaningful turn.
But Indiana’s still red, right? Trump is still the favorite here for president, right? Yes. But his polling strength is also weakening here. He won Indiana by 19 points in 2016, by 16 in 2020, and is polling only 10 points ahead of Kamala Harris in this poll, 52%-42%. Again, this is a meaningful turn.
It is consistent with other Heartland state trends that are not getting much coverage because they aren’t battleground states. For example, the Des Moines Register released a poll on Sunday showing Trump only leading Harris 47%-43% in Iowa. The poll was done by the most reputable source in the state and is compared to a June poll by the same team that had Trump beating President Joe Biden by 18 points.
Whew. No one said there was going to be math this morning. But this math is important and tells a consistent story. Trump’s ceiling of support has been famously locked in for years and is now consistently showing deterioration. In Indiana, the men atop the ticket are unlikeable with nothing interesting to sell. Now their numbers are showing it. Oh, and take the GOP objections to this data with a grain of salt, at least until they show some contrasting data of their own.
Look at the ads, when you can find them, and pay attention to what you see. Braun is the only Republican statewide candidate on TV right now and somehow the “endorsed by Trump” branding that was blended into Braun’s primary election commercials is now gone. The ad is bland and uninspiring yet manages to keep some awkwardness in it.
He’s rebranding himself again.
Republicans have controlled Indiana government, almost entirely, for two decades. So, Braun doesn’t have much to run against, but he has also failed to offer anything new at the same time. That is a strategy that won’t persuade or mobilize voters. It’s hard to be on the Trump train, blaming all of life’s problems on Biden and Harris, while also claiming that Republican-led life in Indiana is happy, joyous and free.
More math: Braun only won the nomination in an expensive and competitive primary with 39% of the Republican vote. Yes, that means more than 60% of Republicans voted for someone else. Those conditions led to the GOP choosing its own lieutenant governor candidate, over Braun’s pick.
Micah Beckwith, the eventual Republican nominee for lieutenant governor, is a Christian nationalist. He is more unpopular than JD Vance. Again, go figure.
Indiana’s consistently embarrassing voter turnout is rooted in apathy. Too many Hoosiers think their votes don’t matter. This year, nothing could be further from the truth.
Michael Leppert is an author, educator and a communication consultant in Indianapolis. He writes about government, politics and culture at MichaelLeppert.com. This commentary was previously published at indianacapitalchronicle.com. Send comments to [email protected].
