“I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!” Donald Trump wrote on his platform, Truth Social, after she endorsed Kamala Harris.
Well, of course he hates her. This is a man who cannot stand strong, independent women. And for someone consumed by size — crowds, ratings, whatever — it must be infuriating to know that Taylor has 284 million followers on Instagram and he has only 26.6 million: less than one-tenth of Swiftie Nation.
Democrats cannot win the White House without maximizing their support among women, particularly younger ones. And Swift’s support for Harris — plus Trump’s vile reaction toward her — could be a critical factor in widening the gender gap in Harris’ favor.
That gap is already growing. In the latest NBC poll, Harris topped Trump by a stunning 21 points among female voters, while Trump led by 12 with men, making the gender gap 33 points. By contrast, the gap was only 23 points when Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020.
“It is now close to, or certainly in the ballpark of, the biggest gender gap we’ve ever seen,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin told Politico. “If you go back in time to the moment before Biden drops out of the race, we have what I call a huge group of standoffish voters — they were unquestionably disproportionately younger, independent and a little more female. Kamala Harris just reached up and gobbled them up in droves.”
“The historic summer we’ve lived through pulled some young women off the sidelines and into the election,” added Sarah Feldman, a senior data journalist at Ipsos, in The New York Times. “These are more marginal shifts overall, but with an incredibly close election, these small decisive swings in support can matter.”
The gender gap first appeared in 1980 and is built on some structural foundations, one of which is race. White women, especially evangelical Christians, still vote Republican, but women of color heavily favor Democrats.
Another key variable is ideology. As the Center for American Women and Politics reports, election studies “show that women tend to be more liberal on social welfare issues — such as aid to the poor, funding public schools, social security and child care — than men.”
Demography amplifies the impact of female voters, who are 51.1% of the population but comprised 54% of the total electorate in 2020. “Young men have repeatedly been found in recent years to be apathetic toward voting, with young women in recent election cycles constantly turning out to vote at higher rates than young men,” write Elaine Kamarck and Jordan Muchnick of the Brookings Institution.
The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in the Dobbs case, overturning a constitutional right to an abortion, has only increased the motivation of young women. Gallup reports that 60% of voters call the Dobbs decision a “bad thing,” with only 36% supporting it.
Trump knows how dangerous this issue is for him, but he’s caught in a terrible bind. His conservative followers — and his own ego — impel him to take credit for appointing three justices that supported Dobbs. But he knows how unpopular that decision is with the larger population, so he recently posted this message to women: “YOU WILL NO LONGER BE THINKING ABOUT ABORTION, BECAUSE IT IS NOW WHERE IT ALWAYS HAD TO BE, WITH THE STATES.”
That is delusional. Women are still deeply worried about their reproductive rights, and the Harris campaign won’t let them forget it. But Trump’s problem with women goes far beyond one issue.
His personal behavior might be even more damaging. He has been found guilty of 34 felonies in a case where he paid off a porn star to stay silent about their affair. Another jury found him guilty of sexually abusing — and defaming — advice columnist E. Jean Carroll. His own wife Melania, and his daughters Ivanka and Tiffany, remain noticeably absent from the campaign trail.
So when Trump posts this message — “I WILL PROTECT WOMEN AT A LEVEL NEVER SEEN BEFORE. THEY WILL FINALLY BE HEALTHY, HOPEFUL, SAFE, AND SECURE” — many women find it both insensible and insulting. In a recent Pew poll, only 34% of voters called Trump a “good role model,” while 53% described Harris that way.
Women — especially younger ones — are solidifying behind Harris because they agree with 23-year-old Sierra Sanson, who told the Times: “She’s a badass woman who I want to see succeed.”
And they are listening to another “badass woman,” the 34-year-old Taylor Swift, when she sings: “Could someone give a message to the smallest man who ever lived?”
Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at [email protected]. Send comments to [email protected].
